ANC’s Comeback Bid in KwaZulu‑Natal

Ramaphosa’s Message of Renewal

What the President Said in eThekwini

Speaking in eThekwini, ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa told party members that the organisation is gaining momentum in KwaZulu‑Natal after a disappointing showing in the 2024 national and provincial elections. He said he would report to the National Working Committee on Monday that the province is moving forward and rebuilding itself.

Election Numbers Show a Steep Drop

Ramaphosa acknowledged that the ANC’s support fell dramatically—from 54 % in the previous election cycle to roughly 16 % in 2024. The MK Party secured about 45 % of the vote, while the IFP also finished ahead of the ANC. Despite the decline, he rejected the idea that the party is “dead” in KZN, declaring, “KZN is the home of the African National Congress.”

Signs the Party Sees Progress

Returning Members and New Leadership

The president noted that people are coming back to the ANC from other political groups, which he sees as part of the party’s renewal. He highlighted the return of former leaders such as Mike Mabuyakhulu and James Nxumalo to the provincial leadership as evidence of internal reshaping.

Plans for the November 4 Local Elections

Ramaphosa said the ANC is using the upcoming local government elections on 4 November as a chance to put the 2024 performance behind it. He urged the party to aim for a return to governing on its own rather than relying on coalition partners, and added that the goal is to lead again by 2029.

Analysts Voice Skepticism

Academic Views on Momentum Claims

University of KwaZulu‑Natal scholar Zakhele Ndlovu questioned the evidence behind Ramaphosa’s optimism, calling it wishful thinking. He pointed out that the ANC finished third in the province behind the MK Party and IFP, a significant drop that cannot be ignored.

Dr Siyabonga Ntombela, also from UKZN, echoed the doubt, noting that election years often see party leaders making optimistic statements to win votes. He said there is currently no strong data showing a genuine gain in momentum.

Challenges Ahead: Service Delivery and Rival Parties

Both analysts agreed that improving service delivery is crucial for rebuilding trust. Ndlovu warned that the popularity of former president Jacob Zuma and the ANC’s record of unfulfilled promises remain obstacles. Ntombela added that poor service delivery in eThekwini has created resentment, and voters will not feel they are getting value for money come the November elections.

What the ANC Says It Needs to Do

Strengthening Branches and Community Ties

Ramaphosa stressed that a strong ANC depends on robust local branches. He said the party must deepen its engagement with communities so that its structures can demonstrate that it remains rooted in the areas it hopes to govern.

Conclusion

While Cyril Ramaphosa paints a picture of a revitalised ANC gaining ground in KwaZulu‑Natal, independent analysts urge caution. They note the steep electoral decline, the strength of rival parties, and ongoing service‑delivery issues as real hurdles. Whether the party’s planned branch‑strengthening and community outreach can turn optimism into measurable gains will become clearer after the 4 November local elections.