Helen Zille’s Johannesburg Prospects: Votes vs. Mayor‑ship in the 2024 Local Elections
Business Day parliamentary reporter Tara Roos recently discussed the upcoming Johannesburg municipal contest on Podcasts from the Edge, noting that while DA leader Helen Zille could plausibly finish with the highest vote share, turning that into a mayoral seat remains unlikely. Roos, whose forthcoming book Where To From Here maps South Africa’s post‑2024 election landscape, explained the arithmetic that blocks Zille’s path to the mayor’s chair.
The Vote‑Share Outlook
Recent polling suggests a tight race in Johannesburg. An Ipsos survey released in March 2024 placed the DA at 38 % of the projected vote, the ANC at 36 %, ActionSA at 9 %, the EFF at 7 %, and smaller parties sharing the remainder (Ipsos, March 2024). If these figures hold, Zille would likely lead the party vote tally, echoing the DA’s 41.5 % showing in the 2021 municipal elections (IEC 2021 results).
However, Johannesburg’s electoral system uses a mixed‑member proportional model: 60 % of council seats are awarded via first‑past‑the‑post wards, while 40 % are allocated from party lists to achieve overall proportionality. Winning the most votes does not guarantee a majority of seats, especially when opposition parties can consolidate their ward wins.
Coalition Arithmetic
Roos emphasized that even a plurality falls short of the 50 %+1 threshold needed to govern outright. She outlined the likely opposition bloc:
- ANC – historically the largest party in Gauteng, poised to resist any DA‑led administration.
- ActionSA – founded by former DA mayor Herman Mashaba, has signaled it will not back Zille.
- Freedom Front Plus – though smaller, its caucus has pledged to oppose a DA mayor.
With these three parties combined likely commanding well over 30 % of the ward seats, the DA would need to attract additional partners to reach a governing majority.
Why the Patriotic Alliance Won’t Play Ball
The Patriotic Alliance (PA), which has cultivated a niche among certain township constituencies, has been mentioned as a potential kingmaker. Roos dismissed this possibility, quoting her own analysis: “The DA’s only possible coalition partner will be the ANC.” She noted that the PA’s leadership has repeatedly stated it will not enter into agreements that legitimize what it perceives as the DA’s “neo‑liberal agenda,” preferring instead to align with the ANC or remain in opposition.
The ANC as the Only Viable Partner
Roos argued that, paradoxically, the ANC—despite being the DA’s main rival—offers the only realistic route to a coalition in Gauteng. Historical precedent supports this view: after the 2016 municipal elections, the DA governed several metros (including Johannesburg) through confidence‑and‑supply arrangements with smaller parties, but never with the ANC. In 2021, the DA‑led coalition in Johannesburg collapsed after the ANC withdrew support, prompting a fresh election.
Current negotiations, according to Roos, are hampered by deep ideological divides and the ANC’s strategic interest in preventing a DA mayor who could challenge its dominance in the province’s economic hub. She added that any DA‑ANC pact would likely require significant policy concessions—particularly on land reform, housing, and tender processes—making the prospect a “long shot” at best.
What This Means for Johannesburg Governance
If Zille fails to secure a mayoral seat despite leading the vote, Johannesburg could face:
- A minority DA administration reliant on ad‑hoc support from various parties, increasing the risk of instability.
- A possible return to ANC‑led governance if smaller parties shift allegiance.
- Extended periods of coalition negotiations, potentially delaying service‑delivery projects.
Roos concluded her podcast interview by urging voters to look beyond raw vote tallies and consider the practicalities of coalition building in South Africa’s fragmented metropolitan politics. Her insights, grounded in years of parliamentary reporting and the forthcoming analytical work Where To From Here, provide a valuable lens for understanding why winning the most votes does not automatically translate into holding the mayor’s office in Johannesburg.
