Africa’s Growing Fuel Import Gap: Risks and Paths Forward
The Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) warned in a report released on Thursday that the continent could face an 86‑million‑tonne shortfall of refined fuel by 2040 if current import trends continue. The projection, which rises from 74 million tonnes in 2023, highlights a growing dependence on external supplies that leaves African economies exposed to global shipping disruptions.
The Scale of the Challenge
According to the AFC, Africa imports more than 70 % of its refined fuel and spends roughly $230 billion each year on essential goods such as food, plastics, steel, and fertilizer. The projected fuel gap for 2040 is equivalent to the output of almost three of the Dangote Group’s mega‑refineries in Nigeria, which are currently the continent’s largest refining complexes.
“The effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about one‑fifth of global fuel transport, has already left several East African nations scrambling for supplies,” said Rita Babihuga‑Nsanze, AFC’s chief economist, speaking at the report’s launch in Nairobi. She added that the Iran‑related conflict has made the consequences of Africa’s import reliance impossible to ignore.
Geopolitical Shockwaves from the Strait of Hormuz
The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime chokepoint; any disruption there reverberates through global energy markets. For Africa, the impact is amplified because:
- Many land‑locked and coastal states rely on tanker routes that pass through the strait for diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel.
- Limited strategic reserves mean that even a short‑term blockage can trigger price spikes and supply shortages.
- Alternative routes, such as the Cape of Good Hope, add significant transit time and cost, further straining already tight budgets.
The AFC notes that while the Hormuz situation is acute, it is not the only vulnerability. Other chokepoints—including the Suez Canal, the Bab el‑Mandeb Strait, and key ports in West Africa—also pose risks to the continent’s import‑dependent supply chains.
Broader Supply‑Chain Vulnerabilities
Africa’s import bill extends well beyond fuel. The AFC report highlights that the continent annually brings in:
- Staple foods (grains, oils, sugar) to meet rising urban demand.
- Industrial inputs such as steel and plastics for manufacturing and construction.
- Agricultural chemicals, including fertilizers, that are vital for boosting crop yields.
These goods often travel the same maritime corridors as fuel, meaning a single disruption can cascade across multiple sectors. Kenyan President William Ruto
“Our ambitions will remain unrealised if we continue to depend on external capital whose primary interest is securing raw materials for their own industries. We cannot continue to export raw materials and import finished products made from them.” The AFC argues that closing the fuel gap requires a two‑pronged approach: building new refining capacity and optimizing existing assets. Specific measures include: Experts stress that any strategy must be grounded in local expertise and transparent governance to attract sustainable financing. By leveraging the AFC’s track record in infrastructure lending and aligning with initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the continent can build resilience against future shipping shocks while advancing its industrialization goals. In short, the looming fuel shortfall is both a warning and an opportunity. Addressing it now will help Africa reduce its exposure to geopolitical chokepoints, retain more value from its natural resources, and move closer to the self‑sufficient, industrial future envisioned by leaders like President Ruto.
Policy Recommendations and Regional Initiatives
