South Africa’s Electricity Generation Declines in March 2026
According to the latest release from Statistics South Africa, the nation’s electricity generation fell 7.1 % in March 2026 compared with the same month in 2025. The amount of electricity delivered to the provinces also dropped, recording a 4.2 % year‑on‑year decline.
Provincial Variations
The impact was uneven across the country. Five of the nine provinces experienced lower supplies, while two reported modest gains.
- Northern Cape – the largest decline, down 30.2 %.
- North West – supplies fell 19.7 %.
- Limpopo – a reduction of 13.5 %.
- Western Cape – the only province with a noticeable increase, up 2.8 %.
- Mpumalanga – a modest rise of 2.3 %.
The remaining provinces recorded changes that were within the margin of statistical noise and are not highlighted in the official release.
Month‑on‑Month Trends
On a shorter timescale, generation decreased 1.6 % from February to March 2026. Looking at the first quarter of 2026, output was 0.8 % lower than the same period in 2025. Consumption patterns showed a different picture: electricity use fell 3.5 % year‑on‑year in March but rose 2.1 % month‑on‑month, suggesting short‑term demand responsiveness despite the broader downward trend.
Load‑Shedding Context and Recovery Efforts
Despite the March dip, South Africa has enjoyed an extended period of supply stability. The country recorded no nationwide load shedding for roughly a year, marking the longest uninterrupted stretch of reliable power in more than a decade. This improvement follows the implementation of Eskom’s power generation recovery plan, which the utility announced last week.
Eskom, which supplies about 86 % of national demand and contributes roughly 20 % of Africa’s total electricity generation, reported:
- Significant reductions in reliance on diesel‑powered peaking plants.
- Enhanced cost efficiency across its fleet.
- Confidence that load shedding will not be required during the upcoming winter season.
These statements are consistent with independent analyses from the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), which noted a decline in emergency diesel consumption of over 40 % between 2024 and early 2026.
Energy Mix, Imports and Exports
South Africa’s generation portfolio remains heavily weighted toward coal. Approximately 80 % of electricity is produced at Eskom’s coal‑fired stations, including the high‑capacity units Medupi and Kusile, as well as older plants such as Matimba, Tutuka, Kendal and Lethabo.
The nation’s sole nuclear facility, Koeberg in the Western Cape, continues to provide around 1,800 MW of baseload power. Renewable contributions have grown steadily since the launch of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP) in 2011; independent power producers now supply between 10 % and 15 % of the national grid.
Cross‑border trade also plays a role. In March 2026, electricity inflows from neighboring countries rose 15.3 %, primarily from Mozambique’s Cahora Bassa hydroelectric scheme and Zambian generators. Conversely, outflows fell 38.6 %, reflecting reduced export capacity amid domestic supply constraints.
When domestic conditions allow, South Africa still exports power to Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini and Zimbabwe, helping to balance regional supply through the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP).
Outlook
The mixed signals—lower generation in March yet a prolonged absence of load shedding—highlight the transitional phase of South Africa’s power sector. Continued investment in renewable projects, upgrades to aging coal infrastructure, and strategic use of regional hydro resources are expected to shape the country’s ability to meet growing demand while reducing emissions. Stakeholders will be watching closely for the next quarterly statistics from Statistics South Africa to see whether the March dip represents a short‑term fluctuation or the beginning of a more sustained trend.
