South Africa’s Power Grid Stabilizes, but Electricity Theft Emerges as a New Challenge
After enduring years of disruptive load‑shedding, South Africa’s national electricity network has shown a marked improvement in reliability. The last scheduled outage occurred on May 15, 2025, and Eskom announced on April 22 that supply will remain stable through the 2026 winter season. This represents a dramatic turnaround from the 205 days of load shedding recorded in 2022 and the 335 days in 2023.
According to Eskom’s latest financial‑year report, the utility maintained a constant power supply of 98.9 %—a stark contrast to the mere 9 % reliability reported two years earlier. CEO Dan Marokane highlighted the achievement, stating that “Eskom, and by extension South Africa, now have a stable electricity platform on which to operate and grow.”
What Drove the Improvement?
The turnaround stems from several coordinated actions:
- Enhanced operational performance at coal‑fired power stations, which still generate more than 70 % of the country’s electricity.
- Rapid deployment of utility‑scale wind and solar projects, adding diversified renewable capacity.
- A gradual shift by households and businesses toward private solar installations and energy‑efficiency measures, reducing overall grid demand.
These factors combined to curb the frequency of forced outages and allowed Eskom to forecast supply with greater confidence.
From Predictable Load‑Shedding to Unplanned Local Outages
While national reliability has improved, the experience at the community level remains uneven. Data compiled by solar energy provider Wetility shows that South Africa recorded 91,934 power outages in the past year—averaging six to nine incidents per month. Households affected by these disruptions spent between 73 and 132 hours without electricity.
Unlike the earlier load‑shedding schedule, which was announced in advance, today’s outages are largely unscheduled and localized. The primary driver behind many of these interruptions is illegal electricity activity.
Illegal Connections and Infrastructure Theft
In informal settlements, unauthorized taps onto the grid create sudden spikes in load that can overload transformers, trigger explosions, and force Eskom to cut power to protect the network. The utility estimates that “non‑technical losses”—chiefly theft and vandalism—accounted for 8 % of its electricity supply in the last financial year, translating to roughly R17.5 billion (≈ US$1.1 billion) in lost revenue.
A tragic incident on May 13 in Johannesburg’s Crown Mines district underscores the safety risks. A technician suffered fatal injuries after coming into contact with an illegally live cable during routine maintenance, prompting a localized blackout that affected homes, traffic signals, and small businesses.
City Power, the municipal distributor for Johannesburg, warned that “illegal electricity connections are not a victimless crime.” The utility noted that overloaded transformers can explode, leading to prolonged outages that sometimes last several days.
Who Is Behind the Theft?
Investigations reveal that many illegal connections are orchestrated by organized criminal groups. These gangs possess the technical know‑how to divert power from Eskom substations and resell it—often operating as “ghost sellers” who supply electricity to informal settlements at a markup.
At the same time, some residents resort to rudimentary methods, such as throwing makeshift cables over live lines or tampering with meters. A 2023 academic study observed that such practices have become normalized in certain communities, with interviewees stating they felt they had “no choice” given the intermittent availability of legitimate supply.
Moving Forward: Balancing Enforcement and Access
Addressing electricity theft requires a multifaceted approach:
- Targeted patrols and smart‑metering technologies to detect anomalies in real time.
- Community outreach programs that explain the dangers of illegal connections and offer legitimate, subsidized connection options.
- Legal reforms that increase penalties for infrastructure vandalism while providing pathways for informal settlers to obtain safe, metered service.
- Continued investment in grid resilience, including transformer upgrades and fault‑location systems that can isolate problems before they cascade.
Experts agree that stabilizing the national grid is only half the battle. As Ikenna Oguguo, group president and co‑founder of Wetility, puts it, “Load shedding was disruptive but predictable. The shift to unscheduled, theft‑driven outages has made the problem more insidious and harder to manage.”
South Africa’s progress in restoring reliable power is a testament to coordinated technical and operational efforts. The next phase will depend on how effectively the country can curb electricity theft while ensuring that all citizens have access to safe, affordable energy.
