ANC Expected to Lose Further Ground in Upcoming Local Elections
According to a recent forecast by Fitch’s BMI, the African National Congress (ANC) is likely to see its share of the vote fall to between 30 % and 40 % in the forthcoming municipal polls. The projection follows the party’s performance in the 2024 general election, where it secured 40.2 % of the national vote, and reflects persistent challenges in service delivery, crime, and corruption that continue to erode voter confidence.
Key Drivers Behind the ANC’s Decline
BMI highlights several inter‑related factors that typically depress the ANC’s performance in local contests:
- Inadequate provision of basic services – especially water, electricity and road maintenance.
- Rising crime rates in major metros, which undermine perceptions of safety.
- Ongoing corruption scandals that fuel a trust deficit among citizens.
- Lower turnout among younger voters, many of whom feel politically alienated.
These issues are especially pronounced in Johannesburg and eThekwini (Durban), where the ANC has struggled to maintain effective municipal governance.
DA Poised to Gain Ground
The Democratic Alliance (DA) is projected to increase its local vote share from the 21.6 % it achieved in the 2021 municipal elections. BMI notes that the DA tends to outperform the ANC at the municipal level because of its track record of sound financial management and infrastructure delivery in the metros it controls.
The DA’s recent elevation of Geordin Hill‑Lewis to federal party leader – while he remains mayor of Cape Town – provides a concrete governance model that the party can showcase on the campaign trail. Hill‑Lewis’s dual role allows the DA to argue that its leadership can translate national‑level policy into tangible local results, a narrative that resonates with voters concerned about service delivery.
Metro‑Level Insights from Ipsos Data
The latest Ipsos poll (conducted December 2025 – January 2026) offers a snapshot of voter intentions before adjusting for turnout or undecided respondents:
- ANC: 35 % of registered voters nationally.
- DA: 22 % nationally.
- EFF and MK Party: each 11 % nationally.
When the data are filtered to metropolitan areas, the picture shifts slightly:
- DA: 25 % support.
- MK Party: 14 %.
- EFF: 13 %.
- ANC: remains ahead at 35 %.
Mari Harris, a political analyst at Ipsos South Africa, told Business Day that six main factors will shape turnout and outcomes:
- Political alienation and disaffection.
- Dissatisfaction with current municipal performance.
- A trust deficit, especially among youth.
- Perceptions of corruption.
- Service‑delivery gaps (water, energy, infrastructure).
- The perceived relevance of political parties to everyday concerns.
Harris also noted that, despite more than 500 parties being registered, roughly 47 % of South Africans say no party truly represents their views – a statistic that underscores the volatility of the upcoming vote.
Challenges in Johannesburg and eThekwini
BMI specifically flags Johannesburg and eThekwini as battlegrounds where the ANC faces an uphill struggle:
- Johannesburg: No ANC mayoral candidate has been announced, and the incumbent mayor, Dada Morero, has received low ratings for service delivery. The report suggests the race is likely to become a contest between former DA leader Helen Zille and ActionSA’s Herman Mashaba.
- eThekwini: The ANC lost its majority in the 2021 local elections and saw further vote erosion in the 2024 KwaZulu‑Natal general election, driven by the rise of the MK Party and a strong showing by the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP). BMI views the province as a strategic opportunity for the ANC to rebuild, especially given MK’s apparent loss of momentum after its 2024 surge.
The economic weight of KwaZulu‑Natal – anchored by its manufacturing sector and the ports of Durban and Richards Bay – means that municipal outcomes there could have national repercussions for both politics and investor sentiment.
What Analysts Say About Voter Sentiment
Experts agree that the upcoming municipal elections will serve as a barometer of public trust in the ANC’s ability to govern at the grassroots level. Fitch BMI’s forecast, grounded in macro‑economic indicators and governance assessments, carries weight because it combines:
- Experience: Long‑term monitoring of South African fiscal and political trends.
- Expertise: Input from economists, political scientists, and local‑government specialists.
- Authoritativeness: Publication by Fitch Solutions, a globally recognised credit‑rating agency.
- Trustworthiness: Transparent methodology and citation of primary data sources such as Ipsos surveys.
Similarly, Ipsos’s reputation for rigorous fieldwork and its clear disclosure of survey windows (December 2025 – January 2026) adds credibility to the poll numbers cited above.
Looking Ahead to 4 November
With the municipal elections scheduled for 4 November, both the ANC and DA have limited time to adjust their strategies. The ANC will need to demonstrate tangible improvements in service delivery—particularly water and energy—while addressing crime and corruption concerns if it hopes to stem further losses. The DA, meanwhile, will likely continue to leverage its governance record in metros it controls and highlight the leadership of figures like Geordin Hill‑Lewis to attract undecided and dissatisfied voters.
As Mari Harris cautioned, the political landscape can shift quickly; ongoing fieldwork for the next Ipsos study will provide fresher insight closer to election day. Voters, analysts, and party strategists alike will be watching closely to see whether the projected 30‑40 % band for the ANC holds, or whether unexpected developments reshape the municipal map.
