Ethiopia’s 2024 General Election: A Landslide Victory Amid Growing Concerns
On Monday, Ethiopians headed to the polls in a vote that saw incumbent Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and his Prosperity Party (PP) secure a decisive victory. While the official results are still being tallied, early indications suggest the PP captured a overwhelming share of parliamentary seats, continuing the trend seen in the 2021 election when the party won 96 percent of the legislature.
The election took place against a backdrop of political repression, ethnic tensions, and ongoing armed conflicts that have raised questions about the credibility and competitiveness of the process. International observers and domestic analysts have warned that the vote may be among the least competitive national elections held since Ethiopia reintroduced multiparty politics in 1991.
Political Landscape and Opposition Constraints
Abiy Ahmed, who assumed office in 2018, initially garnered international praise for his peace initiative with Eritrea, an effort that earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. Over time, however, his administration has faced criticism for increasingly authoritarian tendencies, including restrictions on press freedom, arrests of opposition figures, and the use of security forces to quell dissent.
These developments have left the opposition fragmented and under‑resourced. According to a briefing by the Chatham House think tank, more than 40 political parties compete in the election, but many operate with limited financial capacity and face legal or logistical barriers. In dozens of constituencies, the PP ran unopposed, effectively eliminating any meaningful contest.
“The opposition is in disarray, with many leaders either in exile, imprisoned, or banned from participating,” noted Ahmed Soliman and Abel Abate Demissie of Chatham House in a recent analysis. “This environment severely limits the ability of voters to choose genuine alternatives.”
Security Challenges and Electoral Exclusions
Ethiopia’s vast territory continues to experience localized violence that directly impacted the election:
- Tigray: No voting took place in the northern Tigray region due to ongoing tensions between regional and federal authorities. Over a million people remain displaced from the 2020‑2022 civil war.
- Amhara: Fano nationalist militias have clashed with federal forces in a state of roughly 20 million people. Although the National Election Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) cancelled voting in only eight of Amhara’s 137 constituencies, the threat of disruption remains high.
- Oromia: Covering roughly one‑third of the country, Oromia hosts the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA), which has been active since 2018. NEBE insisted that polling stations open across the region despite the presence of rebel groups.
The Board acknowledged that logistical delays could extend voting hours by a few hours in certain areas, but it maintained that the process would proceed as scheduled.
Economic Context
Despite the political and security challenges, Ethiopia’s economy remains a point of strength. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects GDP growth of over nine percent for 2024, one of the highest rates globally, driven by ongoing reforms initiated under previous administrations and continued investment in infrastructure, agriculture, and manufacturing.
Analysts caution, however, that sustained growth will depend on the government’s ability to resolve internal conflicts and create a stable environment conducive to long‑term investment.
International Observation and Limitations
Regional bodies deployed monitors to assess the election’s credibility. Observers from the African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) were present at polling stations across the country.
In contrast, the European Union’s proposal to send an election observation mission was declined by the Ethiopian government. An EU diplomatic source confirmed that the offer was not accepted, limiting external scrutiny of the vote.
Assessment and Outlook
The 2024 election underscores a paradox: while Ethiopia showcases impressive economic momentum, its political space appears to be narrowing. The PP’s landslide victory, coupled with limited opposition participation and ongoing security concerns, raises important questions about the inclusiveness and legitimacy of the electoral process.
For citizens, the immediate priority remains peace and stability—particularly in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia—so that the dividends of economic growth can be shared broadly. For the international community, continued engagement through diplomatic channels and conditional support may be essential to encourage a more open political environment and to safeguard human rights.
As the final results are expected within ten days of poll closure, stakeholders will watch closely to see whether the outcome translates into a durable governing mandate or further exacerbates the country’s deep‑seated divisions.
