Background on the Proposed Tariff Action
In early 2024 the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) launched a series of investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, focusing on whether certain trading partners adequately prohibit and enforce bans on forced‑labor‑produced goods. The investigations covered 60 economies that together account for 99.4 % of U.S. merchandise imports. On June 3 2024 the USTR released a report concluding that 54 of those economies had not enacted a legal ban on imports made with forced labor, while six others had a ban in place but failed to enforce it effectively. The agency determined that the policies and practices of each examined economy could be addressed through a Section 301 remedy.
Impact on Selected African Economies
Egypt, Morocco and South Africa Face the Largest Exposure
ONE Data, a research firm that tracks trade‑policy effects, calculated the effective tariff rate (ETR) for each of the seven African countries named in the USTR’s preliminary list. The ETR reflects the average duty burden a country experiences, weighting each product’s tariff by its share of that country’s export basket to the United States.
Because the United States already applies a baseline 10 % tariff on most imports, the proposed additional 12.5 percentage‑point duty would raise a country’s ETR by at most 2.5 points. The analysis showed that Egypt, Morocco and South Africa would see the biggest jumps:
- Egypt – exports of $2.6 billion to the U.S.; ETR would rise from 11.9 % to 13.8 % (+1.9 points). Textiles and apparel drive the effect, with knitted garments (+2.5 points) and woven garments (+2.5 points) together representing almost half of Egypt’s export value to the United States.
- Morocco – exports of $1.8 billion; ETR would increase from 9.9 % to 11.4 % (+1.5 points). Woven and knitted apparel, prepared fish and edible fruit are the main contributors, while the broader agriculture sector adds another 2.1 points.
- South Africa – exports of $14.6 billion; ETR would go from 9.5 % to 10.4 % (+0.9 points). Precious metals, stones and jewelry—accounting for 57 % of South Africa’s U.S.–bound shipments—are the primary source of the increase. Smaller but notable impacts appear in organic chemicals (+2.4 points) and nickel (+2.5 points).
In each case, the sectors most affected are those where the United States already applies relatively high duties, meaning the additional Section 301 surcharge would compound existing costs for exporters.
Limited Effect for Oil‑Exporting Nations
The four remaining countries on the list—Libya, Nigeria, Algeria and Angola—are major crude‑oil exporters. Because petroleum products currently face near‑zero tariffs under the existing U.S. schedule, the proposed 12.5 percentage‑point increase would have a negligible effect on their overall ETR. ONE Data estimates the change for each of these economies to be well under 0.1 percentage point, essentially leaving their trade exposure unchanged.
Broader Trade Policy Context
Reviving a Stalled Tariff Agenda
The Section 301 move comes as the Trump administration seeks to reinvigorate a tariff‑focused trade strategy that has encountered significant legal setbacks. In 2023 the Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) of 1977 does not grant the president authority to impose tariffs on imported goods, a decision that curtailed several of the administration’s earlier unilateral tariff actions. By turning to Section 301—which allows the USTR to investigate and respond to unfair foreign trade practices—the administration aims to bypass the IEEPA limitation while still pursuing its broader objective of using tariffs as a leverage tool.
Trade analysts note that linking tariff threats to labor‑rights concerns adds a diplomatic dimension to the policy. However, they also caution that the effectiveness of such measures depends on the ability of targeted countries to improve enforcement mechanisms and on the willingness of U.S. importers to absorb higher costs or shift supply chains.
References
- Office of the United States Trade Representative. “Section 301 Investigation: Forced Labor Practices in Selected Economies.” June 3 2024. PDF.
- ONE Data. “Effective Tariff Rate Analysis of Proposed U.S. Section 301 Duties on African Exports.” March 2024. HTML.
- Supreme Court of the United States. Trump v. Mazars USA, LLP, 591 U.S. ___ (2023).
