African Leaders Urged to Forge Path of Self-Reliance Amid Global Turmoil
In a stark assessment of the contemporary global landscape, Trevor Manuel, a former South African finance minister and respected elder statesman of African economic policy, has called on the continent’s finance and planning ministers to accelerate a agenda of continental renewal and self-reliance. Speaking at the prestigious Adebayo Adedeji Lecture during the 58th Conference of African Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development in Tangier, Morocco, Manuel framed recurring global shocks not as aberrations, but as the new normal to which Africa must adapt.
The New Reality of Predictable Volatility
Manuel, who also served as Lead Adviser and Chairperson of the Africa Expert Panel established for South Africa’s 2025 G20 Presidency, directly addressed the immediate threat posed by the recent surge in oil prices following conflict in the Middle East. He argued that this crisis underscores a deeper, more systemic vulnerability.
“There is nothing in historical data that could have predicted the current levels of volatility,” Manuel stated, pointing to the cascading effects of unilateral geopolitical decisions whose full consequences remain unknown. He warned that the resulting energy and agricultural price shocks would inflict disproportionate pain on Africa’s most vulnerable populations. “The poorest households, which spend a significantly larger share of their income on food and transport, will bear the heaviest burden,” he cautioned, highlighting the regressive nature of such external crises.
From G20 Advocacy to African Implementation
Reflecting on the achievements of South Africa’s G20 presidency, Manuel detailed the work of the Africa Expert Panel. Its seminal report, Growth, Debt and Development: Opportunities for a New African Partnership, presented a four-pillar framework for action:
- Tackling Debt: Addressing unsustainable debt burdens through coordinated strategies.
- Mobilising Domestic Resources: Enhancing tax collection and broadening fiscal bases.
- Reforming Global Finance: Advocating for changes to the international financial architecture.
- Strengthening Pan-African Partnerships: Fostering greater regional integration and cooperation.
“The panel’s recommendations found resonance at the highest levels, from the G20 to the African Union,” Manuel noted. However, he delivered a crucial follow-up message: “The baton is now passed. Implementation rests squarely with African institutions, foremost among them the UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA).” This shift from advocacy to execution, he implied, is where true continental leadership will be tested.
Challenging a Shifting Global Order
Manuel connected these immediate economic pressures to a broader, unsettling shift in international relations. He cited recent rhetoric from leaders in the United States as symptomatic of a move away from a rules-based multilateral system. “We are witnessing a transition from a system grounded in agreed rules and norms to one increasingly justified by the misguided notion that might makes right,” he argued.
For Africa, this presents a critical choice. Manuel urged the continent to resist being relegated to the role of passive implementers of a hegemonic agenda. Instead, he advocated for a proactive stance that defends and revitalises the principles of sovereign equality and collective security enshrined in the UN Charter. “Our voice and our agency must be non-negotiable,” he asserted.
Toward an Africa-Driven Future
Trevor Manuel’s address was not a call for isolation, but for empowered engagement. His message synthesised urgency with a clear roadmap: the continent must use its collective weight to reform unresponsive global systems, while simultaneously driving deeper integration and policy coordination from within. The goal is to build sufficient resilience—in energy, food, and finance—so that external shocks, like those from the Middle East conflict, are absorbed rather than destabilising.
The path forward, as he outlined, requires translating high-level panel reports into concrete national and regional policies. It demands that ministries of finance and planning work in concert with trade, agriculture, and industry to reduce dependency. Finally, it necessitates that African nations present a unified, principled front in international forums, championing a global order that is predictable, equitable, and truly rules-based. The lecture served as a powerful reminder that in an era of predictable volatility, Africa’s best defence is a proactive, united, and self-reliant offence.
