Public diplomacy between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi often paints a picture of harmonious Arab brotherhood. Yet, beneath the surface of official statements—like that from former Saudi Ambassador to the UAE Sultan bin Abdullah Al Anqari praising “noble sentiments”—lies a fierce and evolving geopolitical and economic rivalry. This competition, long simmering in the Gulf, has found a new and critical arena: the African continent. As global powers scramble for Africa’s future, the two leading Gulf monarchies are pursuing starkly different, and sometimes conflicting, paths, with profound implications for the region.
The New Scramble for Africa
Africa is no longer on the sidelines of global strategy. It is central to it. The continent is recognized by powers from the U.S. and China to Russia and the European Union as holding immense strategic weight. This isn’t speculative; it’s grounded in concrete assets and demographics.
- Critical Minerals: Africa holds approximately 30% of the world’s known critical mineral reserves, including cobalt, lithium, and platinum—essential for the global energy transition and digital economy.
- Demographic Dividend: By 2050, the continent is projected to represent more than a quarter of the global population, with a youthful and increasingly urbanized workforce.
- Growth Markets: Numerous African nations consistently rank among the world’s fastest-growing economies, offering vast consumer and investment potential.
This potent combination makes Africa a magnet for capital and influence, transforming it into a geopolitical chessboard where Gulf rivals are now key players.
The UAE’s Head Start: A Strategy of Outward Projection
Between 2019 and 2023, Emirati companies announced projects in Africa worth a staggering $110 billion, with over $70 billion committed to renewable energy. This isn’t limited to energy; it includes a sprawling portfolio managed by state-owned entities like DP World, which operates six major ports across Africa, and heavy investments in agriculture, telecommunications, and mining.
According to Cameron Hudson, a former director for African affairs at the White House and now a political risk consultant, this aggressive expansion is perceived in Riyadh as a direct strategic challenge. “At some point the UAE developed an ambition to be an equal and rival to Saudi Arabia in the broad region,” Hudson states. He points to a clear pattern: high-profile investments in Red Sea and Indian Ocean ports—such as Egypt’s Safaga and Hurghada, Somaliland’s Berbera, and the now-cancelled $6bn Abu Amama project in Sudan—are not merely commercial. They are instruments of power projection.
“The Red Sea has arguably become the most strategic and contested waterway in the world today,” Hudson explains. “To be a regional power you have to have a military presence on that water and, to have a military presence, you need to have port access.”
Why the Divergence? Different Models, Different Scales
The gap in African engagement stems from fundamentally different national development models, shaped by scale and history.
Saudi Arabia’s flagship Vision 2030 is predominantly inward-looking, focused on economic diversification away from oil *within* the Kingdom’s borders. As of 2023, total Saudi investment in Africa was reported at $13 billion, with the finance minister in 2024 projecting a target of $25 billion in private-sector investment over a decade. Historically, Saudi involvement was often socio-religious: funding madrassas, mosques, and facilitating the Hajj pilgrimage for African Muslims.
The UAE, by contrast, is smaller in territory and population. Its economic survival and ambition have always required a global commercial footprint. “Their development therefore required more outward investments and a greater external diplomatic effort,” Hudson notes. This necessity became a strategic advantage in the race for Africa, giving Abu Dhabi a significant two-decade head start in building commercial relationships and logistical networks across the continent.
Fault Lines in the Horn of Africa
Nowhere is the rivalry more acute and potentially destabilizing than in the Horn of Africa, a region of immense geopolitical importance due to its Red Sea coastline and proximity to Middle East shipping lanes.
David Shinn, a former U.S. ambassador to Ethiopia, highlights specific areas of divergence for African Business:
- Sudan: The UAE’s reported material support for the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in the ongoing civil war has placed it directly at odds with Saudi Arabia, which has backed opposing diplomatic initiatives and factions.
- Ethiopia-Eritrea: Shinn notes differing positions between the two Gulf states on the complex relationship between these key regional powers, a split that could complicate peace and security efforts.
- Somalia: Alignment is not guaranteed. Both nations have interests in Somalia’s port sector and political stability, but their backing of different actors or their approaches to the federal government versus regional states can create friction.
These aren’t minor diplomatic differences; they represent competing visions for regional order, with each Gulf power leveraging its African investments and alliances to gain leverage.
The Road Ahead: Competition Over Cooperation?
While both nations officially advocate for Arab unity and African development, their actions tell a story of strategic competition. The UAE has built a formidable, commercially-driven geopolitical footprint across Africa. Saudi Arabia, though catching up with initiatives like the Invest Saudi push, is playing catch-up with a strategy still finding its external focus.
The stakes are high. As Africa’s resources and markets become ever more vital to the 21st-century economy, the continent will increasingly be a stage where the Gulf’s internal dynamics are projected. For African nations, this rivalry offers potential for increased investment and bargaining power. But it also risks importing regional conflicts and complicating efforts at continental integration and peace. The era of simple “Arab brotherhood” in Africa is giving way to a more complex, transactional, and competitive reality.
