Ethiopia’s 2024 General Election: Prosperity Party’s Landslide Amid Ongoing Security Challenges
On 1 June 2024, Ethiopia’s National Electoral Board (NEBE) announced that the ruling Prosperity Party (PP) had secured a decisive victory in the country’s general election, winning approximately 90 percent of the seats in the House of People’s Representatives. The result, based on an AFP tally of NEBE data, shows the PP capturing 438 of the 486 contested seats.
Election Overview and Voter Participation
According to NEBE Chairman Melatwork Hailu, voting took place in 501 of Ethiopia’s 547 constituencies. Roughly 40 million citizens cast ballots out of a registered electorate of 54 million, reflecting a turnout of about 74 percent in the areas where polls were open. The board noted that 143 polling stations remained closed on election day due to security concerns, with disruptions reported primarily in the Amhara and Oromia regions.
While more than 40 political parties contested the election, many lacked the financial resources and organizational capacity to mount a serious challenge. The PP faced no opposition in 64 constituencies, and the second‑largest party, Ezema, nominated only 293 candidates compared to the PP’s 461.
Results in Detail
- Total seats in the House of People’s Representatives: 546 (including reserved seats)
- Seats contested in the 2024 vote: 486
- PP seats won: 438 (≈ 90 percent)
- Remaining seats distributed among opposition parties and independents
The electoral system allows members of the House to elect the Prime Minister from among their ranks. A parliamentary vote to confirm the premier is expected between late September and October 2024.
Security Incidents and Regional Exclusions
Two of Ethiopia’s most populous regions—Tigray and Amhara—experienced significant electoral disruptions.
Tigray
The northern Tigray region, still recovering from the 2020‑2022 conflict that the United Nations estimates caused around 600,000 deaths, did not hold any voting. Persistent tensions between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and federal authorities have raised concerns about a possible resurgence of hostilities, with both sides reporting troop movements along the regional border.
Amhara
In Amhara, the country’s second‑most populous region, nationalist militias known as Fano threatened to impede the electoral process. The Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) recorded at least 90 clashes between Fano fighters and security forces on election day. Polling stations remained closed in eight constituencies within the region.
Oromia
Oromia also saw violence linked to the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). ACLED documented eight armed clashes between the OLA and federal troops, and eyewitnesses reported attacks on Orthodox Christian communities in the Arsi district that resulted in the deaths of at least 11 civilians, with local sources suggesting the toll could be higher.
Context and Analysis
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, who has led Ethiopia since April 2018, initially garnered international acclaim for his role in the 2018 Eritrea‑Ethiopia peace agreement, an effort that earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019. Over the past few years, however, his administration has faced mounting criticism for alleged authoritarian tendencies, including restrictions on press freedom, the postponement of elections in certain regions, and the use of security forces to quell dissent.
The PP’s overwhelming victory reflects both its incumbent advantage and the fragmented nature of the opposition. Many opposition parties cited limited access to campaign financing, state‑controlled media bias, and logistical obstacles as impediments to effective competition. International observers, including the African Union and the European Union, have noted the need for inclusive dialogue to address lingering grievances in Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia.
Looking Ahead
As Ethiopia prepares for the parliamentary vote that will confirm the next prime minister, several challenges remain:
- Implementing a credible, nationwide disarmament, demobilization, and reintegration (DDR) program in Tigray.
- Addressing the root causes of communal violence in Amhara and Oromia, including land disputes and ethnic nationalism.
- Ensuring that the upcoming parliamentary session operates with transparency and allows for meaningful opposition participation.
- Rebuilding trust with international partners by respecting human rights commitments and allowing unfettered access for humanitarian aid.
The outcome of the June 1 election underscores the durability of the Prosperity Party’s political machinery, yet it also highlights the urgent need for inclusive governance to sustain peace and stability across Ethiopia’s diverse ethnic landscape.
Sources: National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), Agence France‑Press (AFP) election tally, Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), United Nations estimates on Tigray conflict casualties, Nobel Peace Prize announcement (2019).
