FNB/BER Civil Confidence Holds Steady in Q2 2026
What the Survey Shows
The FNB/BER civil confidence index stayed the same in the second quarter of 2026 after dropping nine points to 43 in the first quarter. Even though the overall score didn’t move, more than half of the respondents said they were unhappy with current business conditions.
Construction Activity – Mixed Signals
Order Books Improving
The measure that tracks insufficient new demand – a proxy for order books – fell further below its long‑term average. This suggests that firms are seeing stronger order books, which helps balance out weaker activity growth.
Activity Growth Slowing
The activity‑growth metric slipped for the second quarter in a row but remained above its long‑term average, indicating that the sector is still resilient despite losing some momentum.
Why Confidence Didn’t Rise
Higher Costs
Input prices have risen, squeezing profit margins. Companies have managed to pass some of these costs onto customers through existing contracts, keeping overall profitability flat compared with the previous quarter.
Geopolitical Uncertainty
FNB senior economist Siphamandla Mkhwanazi pointed to the higher cost environment and rising uncertainty from the US‑Iran tensions as the main drag on construction growth this quarter.
Data from Statistics South Africa
In the first quarter of 2026, the real value of construction work rose 5.1 % year‑on‑year, after a slight 0.2 % decline in the final quarter of 2025. This rebound gives a backdrop to the survey’s findings.
Looking Ahead
Potential for Recovery
Mkhwanazi said that if the current Middle‑East peace agreement holds and global trade returns to normal, construction activity could pick up again. Demand from energy, mining, and transport infrastructure projects is expected to stay strong.
Base‑Year Effects
Because activity was strong in Q2 2025, the year‑on‑year comparison may make the current figures look softer than the underlying trend.
How the Results Compare with Other Indicators
The Afrimat Construction Index posted a modest 0.3 % year‑on‑year increase in Q1 2026, driven by growth in work completed, building completions, employment, and material sales. Afrimat economist Dr. Roelof Botha noted three consecutive quarters of seasonally adjusted growth – the first such streak since the brief recession in 2020.
Conclusion
Overall, the FNB/BER civil confidence survey paints a picture of a construction sector that is holding its ground. While higher costs and geopolitical worries have kept sentiment flat, improving order books and underlying resilience suggest that activity could rebound once those pressures ease.
