South Africa’s Electricity Generation Continues Its Decline in April 2025
According to the latest data released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), electricity generation fell 9 % year‑on‑year in April 2025, marking the eleventh consecutive month of annual decline. The month‑on‑month figure showed a further dip of 1.7 % compared with March, while electricity distributed across the country dropped 5.5 % year‑on‑year, with seven of the nine provinces recording lower volumes.
Key Statistics from Stats SA
- Year‑on‑year generation change: ‑9 % (April 2025 vs. April 2024)
- Month‑on‑month generation change: ‑1.7 % (April vs. March 2025)
- Distribution volume change: ‑5.5 % year‑on‑year
- Domestic consumption change: ‑5 % year‑on‑year, ‑1.3 % month‑on‑month
- Seasonally adjusted demand (three‑month average to April): ‑0.8 % versus the previous quarter
- Electricity inflows (imports) rose 14.5 % year‑on‑year; outflows fell 54.3 %
Factors Behind the Drop
Nicolai Claassen, Director of Industrial Statistics at Stats SA, noted that the decline appears driven primarily by weakening industrial demand. “From what we can determine through our internal investigations, it could be reduced industrial demand that is causing the decline in electricity consumption,” he said. This trend aligns with reports of several smelters preparing to close or scale back operations due to soaring energy costs, particularly in the ferrochrome sector, where electricity represents the largest single cost component.
Additionally, the broader economic environment—marked by subdued manufacturing output and cautious investment—has curtailed overall power usage across residential, commercial, and industrial segments.
Renewable Energy Landscape and Eskom’s Response
While Stats SA’s figures capture grid‑supplied electricity, they do not fully reflect self‑generated renewable energy such as rooftop solar panels. Claassen explained that off‑grid activity is monitored but not yet comprehensively covered in the national statistics.
Since the launch of the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPP) in 2011, independent power producers (IPPs) now contribute roughly 10‑15 % of the electricity fed into the national grid. The majority of South Africa’s power, however, still comes from Eskom’s coal‑fired fleet, which also supplies about 20 % of the continent’s total electricity generation.
In a move to bolster local renewable‑energy capacity, Eskom announced plans to construct a solar photovoltaic (PV) module manufacturing plant with a capacity of at least 1 gigawatt (GW) at one of its sites in Mpumalanga. The facility could meet the annual electricity needs of roughly 750,000 households and forms part of a broader strategy to localise the renewable‑energy value chain.
Regional Power Flows
South Africa remains a net importer of electricity within the Southern African Power Pool (SAPP). In April 2025, electricity inflows increased by 14.5 % year‑on‑year, largely sourced from Mozambique’s Cahora Bassa hydroelectric station. Conversely, outflows fell sharply by 54.3 %, reflecting reduced export demand from neighbouring countries as regional consumption patterns shift.
Outlook
The persistent decline in grid‑supplied electricity underscores the urgency of diversifying the energy mix and enhancing demand‑side management. Continued growth in distributed solar, coupled with Eskom’s investments in local PV manufacturing and potential grid upgrades, could help offset the shortfall caused by falling industrial consumption. Monitoring both utility‑scale and off‑grid generation will be essential for policymakers aiming to secure a reliable and sustainable power supply for South Africa’s future.
