Ethiopia’s June 1 Election: Opposition Faces Threats, Media Control and a Likely Landslide
On 1 June 2024 Ethiopians will go to the polls in a vote that opposition leaders describe as a “ritual” rather than a genuine contest. While Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s rise to power in 2018 was heralded by the release of political prisoners, a peace deal with Eritrea and the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize, the political landscape has since shifted toward tighter state control, limited media freedom and sporadic violence that hampers campaigning.
Background: From Reform to Repression
Abiy’s Prosperity Party (PP) swept the 2021 parliamentary elections, securing 96 percent of the 547 seats and leaving little room for dissent. The government’s pledge that the next parliament would be “more diverse” has yet to materialise, and opposition figures warn that the upcoming vote will be the worst in the country’s recent history.
According to Reporters Without Borders, Ethiopia ranks 148th out of 180 nations in the 2024 World Press Freedom Index, reflecting widespread harassment of journalists, internet shutdowns and the dominance of state‑aligned outlets.
Historically, Ethiopia has never held a fully free and fair election. Since the fall of the Derg regime in 1991, every poll has produced landslide victories for the ruling party, accompanied by allegations of fraud and intimidation.
Opposition Constraints and Campaign Challenges
Opposition parties report a range of obstacles that impede their ability to reach voters:
- Physical harassment and arbitrary arrests – activists from the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Party (EPRP) say members are routinely detained or beaten during campaign stops.
- Media blackout – independent radio and television stations face licensing delays; social‑media platforms are flooded with pro‑PP disinformation and hate campaigns.
- Uncontested constituencies – the PP is running unopposed in 64 of the 547 districts, meaning voters in those areas have no alternative on the ballot.
- Limited candidate fielding – the largest opposition bloc, Ezema, will nominate candidates in only 293 seats, hoping to increase its current representation of four MPs.
- Questions over opposition legitimacy – some Ezema members hold ministerial posts, prompting critics to label the party more a government ally than a true challenger.
Ezema member Eyoel Solomon told AFP that, despite these hurdles, the party expects “significantly better” media coverage than in previous elections, though he conceded that “the election process is not entirely fair and free.”
Insurgency and Security Threats
Beyond administrative barriers, opposition candidates in the Amhara region contend with the nationalist militia Fano, which has issued death threats and disrupted rallies.
Yesuf Ebrahim, a candidate for the Amhara National Movement, explained to AFP that Fano “intimidate, harass, and threaten our candidates and supporters with death,” making it impossible to hold open‑air meetings in many districts.
Analyst Joseph Siegle of the Africa Centre for Strategic Studies notes that even in a freer environment the PP would likely prevail because of its superior name‑recognition, nationwide organisational network and access to state resources. He adds that the current process “appears open and credible” on paper, but the reality on the ground tells a different story.
International Perspectives and Outlook
External observers echo the concerns raised by domestic actors. The European Union Election Observation Mission, which monitored the 2021 poll, warned that “restrictions on fundamental freedoms and an uneven playing field” undermine the credibility of the vote. Similar sentiments have been voiced by the United States Department of State, which called for “transparent, inclusive and peaceful elections” in its 2024 human rights report.
Despite the challenges, some opposition leaders see the election as an opportunity to expose the limits of the current system and to build a foundation for future political competition. As Merera Gudina, president of the 11‑party Committee of Opposition Parties, put it: “Conducting elections under these conditions is essentially a ritual intended to show the international community that the government is elected every five years by the people.”
Whether the June 1 poll will deliver a genuine expression of Ethiopian voters’ will or merely reinforce the incumbent’s dominance remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that the opposition faces a steep uphill battle marked by threats, media constraints and a political arena heavily tilted in favour of the ruling Prosperity Party.
