Africa’s Growing Fuel Import Gap: What the AFC Report Reveals
The Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) warned in a recent publication that the continent could face an 86‑million‑tonne shortfall of refined fuel by 2040 if current import trends continue. The projection, released on Thursday, stems from a detailed analysis of Africa’s rising demand for petroleum products and its persistent reliance on overseas supplies.
The report highlights that Africa already imports more than 70 % of its refined fuel, a figure that translates into roughly 74 million tonnes consumed in 2023. By 2040, that number is expected to climb to 86 million tonnes – a volume comparable to the output of nearly three of the Dangote Group’s massive refineries in Nigeria, which remain the continent’s largest refining complexes.
Why the Iran Conflict Matters for African Energy Security
Speaking at the report’s launch in Nairobi, AFC Chief Economist Rita Babihuga‑Nsanze pointed out that the recent escalation in the Middle East has laid bare the fragility of Africa’s fuel supply chains.
“The crisis in the Gulf has made the consequences of our dependence impossible to ignore,” she said.
One of the most striking examples she cited is the potential shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway that carries about one‑fifth of global seaborne fuel shipments. Any disruption there would immediately affect East African nations that rely heavily on Gulf‑origin crude and refined products.
However, the AFC stresses that the Strait of Hormuz is not the only chokepoint threatening the continent. Other vulnerable routes include:
- The Suez Canal, handling a significant share of Europe‑Asia fuel traffic.
- The Cape of Good Hope, where longer detours increase costs and exposure to piracy.
- West African coastal ports, which face congestion and limited storage capacity.
The Broader Import Picture: Fuel and Essential Goods
Beyond fuel, Africa’s import bill for essential commodities remains staggering. The AFC notes that the continent brings in over $230 billion worth of goods each year, spanning food, plastics, steel, and fertiliser. This heavy reliance on finished products — while exporting mostly raw materials — creates a structural imbalance that hampers industrialisation.
Kenyan President William Ruto echoed this concern during the summit, stating:
“Our ambitions will remain unrealised if we continue to depend on external capital whose primary interest is securing raw materials for their own industries. We cannot continue to export raw materials and import finished products made from them.”
His remarks underscore a growing consensus among African leaders: breaking the import‑dependence cycle is essential for sustainable development.
Pathways to Closing the Gap
Strategic Hubs and Infrastructure Upgrades
The AFC recommends a two‑pronged approach:
- Develop regional fuel‑storage and blending hubs that can buffer supply shocks.
- Upgrade existing refineries to improve yields and reduce reliance on imported finished products.
Investing in such infrastructure would not only shorten the supply chain but also create jobs and stimulate local engineering expertise.
Diversifying Energy Sources
To lessen vulnerability to maritime chokepoints, the report encourages:
- Accelerating the adoption of renewable energy for power generation, thereby reducing demand for diesel and fuel oil.
- Exploring regional gas‑to‑liquids projects that can convert abundant natural gas into transport fuels.
- Promoting biofuel initiatives that utilise agricultural residues, aligning with Africa’s strong agrarian base.
Conclusion: A Call for Coordinated Action
The AFC’s projection of an 86‑million‑tonne fuel shortfall by 2040 is more than a statistic — it is a warning signal for policymakers, investors, and industry leaders across the continent. By acknowledging the experience of experts like Rita Babihuga‑Nsanze, leveraging the authority of a pan‑African finance institution, and grounding recommendations in credible data from the World Bank, the International Energy Agency (IEA), and regional energy ministries, stakeholders can craft informed strategies.
Addressing the import dependence will require coordinated investment in refining capacity, logistics hubs, and cleaner energy alternatives. Only through such concerted efforts can Africa turn its vast resource potential into genuine energy security and economic resilience.
