What the Report Says
The Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection (MISTRA) released its 2026 Coalitions Barometer after looking at how local governments performed after the 2021 elections. The study warns that if more parties keep joining the race, South Africa could see many more “hung” councils—situations where no single party has enough seats to rule alone. That makes forming a government harder and negotiations longer.
Why More Parties Mean More Trouble
Fragmentation on the Rise
The report counted 103 different parties that won at least one seat in the municipalities examined. Of those, 64 ended up in coalitions and 14 actually led a government. When the number of parties keeps growing, it becomes harder for any two or three groups to reach the majority needed to govern.
Hung Councils Could Multiply
If the trend continues into the 2026 elections, many towns and cities may end up with no clear winner. Leaders will have to sit down with several small parties to reach a deal, which takes time and can be unstable.
The Power of the Small Parties
King‑Makers in the Room
Smaller parties often hold the balance of power. Even though they may have few seats, they can decide which big party gets to lead a coalition. The report calls them “decisive actors” because their support can make or break a government.
Examples from the Study
- The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) proved to be a reliable coalition partner.
- The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) appeared in many councils but only led two administrations.
- The newly formed MK Party is still an “unknown quantity” because it has little track record in the areas studied.
Why Coalitions Keep Falling Apart
Frequent Changes in Leadership
Out of 80 hung municipalities looked at, 46 saw more than one administration after the 2021 vote. Johannesburg and Karoo Hoogland each went through six different governments in the period studied.
What Causes a Collapse?
In 58 of the 101 recorded government endings, the largest party in the coalition lost power. Yet in 38 cases, the same leading party managed to rebuild a government and kept the mayor’s seat in 29 of those instances.
Metro Areas Are Less Stable
Coalitions in big cities tended to break down more often than those in smaller towns or rural districts.
Audit Results Don’t Explain the Chaos
Interestingly, the study found no clear link between a coalition falling apart and the municipality’s audit outcomes. This suggests that the technical side of local government—like budgeting and service delivery—can keep running even when politicians are arguing.
The authors note that this is only a first look; more research is needed to see what else influences how well a municipality works.
Minority Governments Face the Toughest Odds
Of the 175 administrations examined, 82 were minority governments—meaning they did not have more than half the seats. These governments are common but rarely last long.
- 34 of the 82 minority administrations collapsed.
- Only 24 of the 93 majority governments fell apart.
- Minority coalitions without a supporting party fell about three times as often as those that had one.
What Needs to Change Before the Next Election
Clearer Rules and More Transparency
MISTRA recommends that parties agree on clear norms for how coalitions are formed and how they should stick to their deals. Greater transparency about who is doing what can help build trust.
Honoring Agreements
When parties follow the agreements they make, governments are more likely to survive. Breaking promises leads to quick collapses and forces everyone back to the negotiating table.
Preparing for 2026
As political parties get ready for the November 2026 local elections, they should think about how to work with many different groups, keep technical services running smoothly, and create coalitions that can last.
Conclusion
The warning from MISTRA is simple: more parties mean more hung councils, and hung councils mean tougher, longer negotiations to form a government. Smaller parties can tip the balance, but without clear rules and honest cooperation, coalitions will keep falling apart. If South Africa wants stable local governments after the 2026 elections, parties need to plan ahead, be transparent, and honor the agreements they make.
