The 2026 Local Elections and the Future of South Africa’s Tripartite Alliance
The upcoming municipal polls, scheduled between November 2 2026 and February 1 2027, are poised to deliver the first concrete test of whether the century‑old partnership between the African National Congress (ANC), the South African Communist Party (SACP) and the Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) still functions as a unified electoral force.
A Historic Shift: SACP Goes It Alone
In December 2024 the SACP announced it would field its own candidates in several municipalities, breaking a long‑standing practice of directing members to vote for the ANC. This decision followed the ANC’s entry into a coalition with the Democratic Alliance (DA) at the national level, a move that strained the traditional alliance.
Historically, the SACP has not only shared ideological ground with the ANC but also operated through overlapping offices, community structures and membership rolls. Since 1994 the party has instructed its members to support the ANC in every general and local election. The SACP’s 2017 Metsimaholo by‑election victory—where it secured three council seats in its first independent run—demonstrated that the party can translate its organisational capacity into votes when it chooses to contest on its own.
Quantifying the Alliance’s Electoral Impact
Disentangling the SACP’s contribution to the ANC’s vote total has always been difficult because of the deep organisational overlap. Nevertheless, available data from the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) shows a clear trend:
- In the 2014 national election the ANC received approximately 11.4 million votes.
- By the 2024 general election that figure had fallen to about 6.4 million—a loss of roughly 5 million votes.
- During the same period the SACP‑ANC alliance remained nominally intact, with the SACP continuing to mobilise on behalf of the ANC, as confirmed by SACP General Secretary Solly Mapaila in 2024.
These numbers suggest that, even as the ANC’s support base eroded, the SACP’s mobilisation efforts were insufficient to halt the decline. The upcoming local elections will therefore provide a rare opportunity to measure, in real time, how many voters still follow the SACP’s directive when the party runs its own slate.
Cosatu’s Undecided Position
The third leg of the alliance, Cosatu, has yet to announce a definitive stance on the SACP‑ANC split. Matthew Parks, Cosatu’s parliamentary coordinator, told media outlets that the confederation is consulting its members ahead of its September 2025 congress.
“We are engaging workers and members on this issue as we move towards our congress in September where we will review all Cosatu resolutions. This is an issue that our unions are engaging workers with in preparation for the congress,”
The Cosatu Central Committee has instructed its leadership to engage both the ANC and SACP on worker concerns such as economic policy, budget cuts, sluggish growth and high unemployment. Political analyst Wayne Sussman notes that while the ANC has weathered breakaway parties since 1999, the current split is particularly consequential because the ruling party is at its weakest point in recent memory and risks losing a significant cadre of activist members to the SACP.
Leadership Dilemmas and Constitutional Constraints
The ANC’s internal rules prohibit members from standing for another political party, a provision that now places several high‑profile dual members in a difficult position. Notable figures facing the choice include:
- Gwede Mantashe – Minister of Mineral and Petroleum Resources and ANC national chairman.
- Buti Manamela – Minister of Higher Education, Science and Innovation.
- David Masondo – Deputy Finance Minister.
Mantashe has publicly stated that, if forced to choose, he would remain an ANC member. His stance carries weight given his seniority in both organisations; he previously served on the SACP Central Executive Committee before being removed for attendance issues.
The ANC has given dual members a ten‑day window, beginning the Thursday following the announcement, to declare which party they will campaign for in the upcoming municipal contests. This deadline is expected to clarify the extent of elite defections and may influence grassroots mobilisation.
What the 2026 Elections Could Reveal
Analysts agree that the municipal polls will serve as a empirical litmus test for three key questions:
- Electoral relevance of the SACP: How many votes will the SACP capture when running independently, and will those votes come largely from former ANC supporters?
- Alliance durability: Will Cosatu’s eventual decision reinforce or further fracture the tripartite bond?
- ANC resilience: Can the ruling party offset losses to the SACP by attracting new voters or retaining its core base despite the coalition with the DA?
Answering these questions will not only clarify the internal dynamics of South Africa’s left‑wing alliance but also shed light on broader voter behaviour in a period marked by economic uncertainty, service‑delivery protests and shifting party loyalties.
As the November 2026‑February 2027 window approaches, observers from academia, civil society and the media will be watching closely. The data generated from these local elections promises to move the debate from speculation to evidence‑based understanding of whether the ANC‑SACP‑Cosatu alliance remains a decisive force in South African politics.
