Nigeria’s Crude Oil Output Rises Above OPEC Quota in May
According to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria’s crude oil production reached an average of 1.53 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, exceeding the cartel’s approved quota of 1.5 million bpd. The figure marks a 3.38 percent increase** from April’s output of 1.48 million bpd, as reported in OPEC’s monthly oil market report for May.
How OPEC Derived the Numbers
OPEC stated that the Nigerian production numbers were obtained through direct communications with Nigerian authorities. The organization also referenced secondary sources, which placed Nigeria’s May output at 1.51 million bpd – a slight decline of 0.66 percent from the 1.52 million bpd recorded in April.
Broader Context Within the Declaration of Cooperation
In its May 2026 assessment, OPEC noted that the group of countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation (DoC) collectively produced an average of 33.13 million barrels per day. This represents a decrease of 0.19 million bpd compared with the previous month. Nigeria’s contribution, while modest in the global total, has been a focal point for OPEC because of its recent quota extensions and production volatility.
Quota Extension and Historical Trends
In November 2025, OPEC extended Nigeria’s crude oil production quota of 1.5 million bpd through December 2026, aiming to stabilize output amid ongoing security challenges in the Niger Delta. Historical data shared by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited illustrates a notable recovery:
- Production fell to a low of 960,000 bpd in 2022.
- By early 2024, output had risen to an average of 1.71 million bpd, according to NNPC Group Chief Executive Officer Bashir Ojulari.
- Output peaked at 1.84 million bpd in 2025 before the recent moderation.
NNPC’s Explanation for the Recovery
Bashir Ojulari attributed the production gains to the implementation of an integrated energy security model for pipelines across the Niger Delta. He emphasized that the increase was not accidental but the result of coordinated efforts to curb crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism, which have historically siphoned off significant volumes of output.
Implications for the Oil Market
Nigeria’s ability to sustain production above its OPEC quota could influence regional supply balances, particularly as global demand remains uncertain. Analysts suggest that consistent output from Nigeria may help offset voluntary cuts elsewhere, though any resurgence in security incidents could quickly reverse the trend.
Looking Forward
OPEC’s next monthly report will continue to monitor Nigeria’s compliance with its quota and the effectiveness of security measures in the Niger Delta. Stakeholders, including investors and policymakers, will watch for further updates from NNPC and OPEC to gauge whether the current upward trajectory can be maintained through the remainder of 2026 and into 2027.
