Global Peace Index 2026 Shows Continued Decline in World Peace
The latest edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI) released by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) marks the fifteenth deterioration in global peacefulness over the past eighteen years. According to the report, the average level of peace fell by 0.7 % in 2025, extending a streak of twelve consecutive annual declines (Institute for Economics & Peace, 2026).
Key Findings of the GPI 2026
The index tracks 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators across three domains: societal safety and security, ongoing domestic and international conflict, and militarisation. The most notable shifts this year include:
- A sharp rise in deaths from internal conflict, driven largely by violence in Sudan, to the Sahel region.
- More than 181,000 people killed insecurities in Sudan and protracted instability in several African hotspots.
- Record high global military expenditure, which now exceeds US$2.2 trillion annually.
- An increase in the number of forcibly displaced persons, remaining above 117 million worldwide.
- A worsening score for deaths from terrorism, despite a modest dip in the Sahel.
These trends underscore how geopolitical tensions, prolonged wars, and shifting security alliances are eroding the foundations of peace.
Africa’s Peacefulness Landscape
Sub‑Saharan Africa recorded a slight deterioration in 2026, with the regional average score worsening by 0.2 %. The region now hosts eight of the world’s twenty least‑peaceful countries, up from five in 2008 (IEP, 2026).
Nevertheless, several African nations continue to outperform their peers:
- Mauritius retained its position as the continent’s most peaceful state, ranking 18th globally.
- Equatorial Guinea climbed to 38th place, becoming Africa’s second‑most peaceful country.
- Botswana maintained its longstanding reputation for stability and good governance, securing third place in Africa.
- West African states such as The Gambia, Sierra Leone, Senegal, and Ghana all featured in the top ten African rankings despite broader security challenges.
These successes are attributed to political stability, strong institutions, low levels of violent crime, and limited involvement in armed conflict.
Spotlight on the Sahel and Emerging Risks
The Sahel remains a focal point of concern. Although deaths from terrorism in the region fell in 2025 for the first time in years, the Sahel still accounts for more than half of all terror‑related fatalities worldwide. Groups such as Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) have evolved from insurgent movements into quasi‑state actors that control large territories and impose economic blockades on cities like those in Mali (Thomas Morgan, IEP, 2026).
Thomas Morgan, Chief Research Officer at IEP and co‑author of the GPI 2026, highlighted a strategic shift in the region’s security partnerships:
“There was a shift toward Russia and a heavy reliance on the Wagner Group, which was later renamed Africa Corps. The Africa Corps focused more on regime stability and regime continuity and placed less emphasis on counterterrorism operations.”
Morgan warned that this reorientation has contributed to worsening extremist violence, especially in Niger, where regime protection has taken precedence over efforts to dismantle terrorist networks.
Looking Ahead: Monitoring the Iran Conflict Impact
Beyond the Sahel, Morgan urged policymakers to watch a potential flashpoint that could reverberate across Africa: the ongoing war in Iran.
“The one factor that is not yet in play and that we will be watching most closely over the next three to six months is the impact of the war in Iran.”
He added that the wider geopolitical and security consequences of the Iran conflict could eventually be felt across the African continent, potentially altering migration patterns, trade flows, and regional alliances.
Conclusion
The Global Peace Index 2026 paints a nuanced picture: while global peacefulness continues to deteriorate, pockets of resilience persist, particularly in certain African states that benefit from strong governance and low conflict exposure. Understanding the drivers—ranging from internal insurgencies and shifting security partnerships to external geopolitical shocks—is essential for policymakers aiming to reverse the downward trend and foster sustainable peace.
