Zambia’s 2025 General Election: Economic Gains Meet Persistent Challenges
As President Hakainde Hichilema gears up for the August 13 general election, his campaign hinges on the economic turnaround his administration has overseen since taking office in 2021. Supporters point to falling inflation, rising foreign investment, and a rebound in copper‑driven growth. Critics, however, warn that poverty remains entrenched and that political space is shrinking.
Economic Record Under Hichilema
When Hichilema assumed the presidency, Zambia was grappling with a debt distress crisis and sluggish growth. Two years later, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects real GDP growth of 4.3 percent for 2025, up from 3.8 percent in 2024 [1]. The uptick is largely attributed to:
- Sustained high copper prices, which boosted export revenues.
- A successful debt‑restructuring agreement with private creditors that lowered borrowing costs.
- Improved macro‑economic stability, pulling consumer price inflation down to its lowest level in eight years (approximately 6.2 percent YoY in Q1 2025) [2].
Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows also rose, with the Zambia Development Agency reporting a 12 percent year‑on‑year increase in registered projects during 2024 [3]. These figures have been highlighted by the government as evidence of a “renewed economic momentum.”
Persistent Socio‑Economic Gaps
Despite the macro‑economic improvements, the World Bank estimates that over 70 percent of Zambians still live below the national poverty line, and the poverty rate has risen slightly since 2022 [4]. Rural households, in particular, continue to rely on subsistence farming and face limited access to electricity and clean water.
Analysts note that the benefits of higher copper prices have not yet translated into broad‑based job creation. The unemployment rate remains around 13 percent, with youth unemployment exceeding 20 percent in urban centres [5]. Civil society groups argue that without targeted social programmes, growth risks being uneven.
Political Climate and Opposition Concerns
President Hichilema’s main challenger, opposition leader Brian Mundubile of the Patriotic Front, has raised two intertwined concerns:
- Political repression: Mundubile claims that his campaign rallies have been disrupted by police and that opposition members face intimidation. Independent monitors, such as the Zambia Election Monitoring Centre, have documented isolated incidents of excessive force during political gatherings in early 2025 [6].
- Legislative constraints on free speech: A cybercrime act passed in 2025 introduces broad definitions of “online harassment” and “false information.” Media watchdogs, including the Media Institute of Southern Africa, warn that the law could be used to silence critical journalism and limit online dissent [7].
The government maintains that the legislation is necessary to combat cyber‑fraud and protect national security, insisting that it includes safeguards for legitimate expression.
Looking Ahead to August 13
Voters will weigh the tangible economic gains against lingering poverty and concerns over democratic space. Recent Afrobarometer surveys show a narrow lead for the incumbent, with 48 percent of respondents indicating they would vote for Hichilema if the election were held today, compared to 42 percent for Mundubile; the remainder remain undecided or intend to support smaller parties [8].
Key issues likely to shape the final weeks of campaigning include:
- Implementation of poverty‑alleviation programmes targeted at rural communities.
- Transparency in the management of mining revenues and debt‑service obligations.
- Assurances that campaigning can proceed without undue restriction on opposition activities.
As the election date approaches, both domestic observers and international partners will be watching closely to see whether Zambia’s economic recovery can translate into renewed public trust—or whether socio‑economic grievances and political tensions will tip the balance.
References
- International Monetary Fund, “Zambia: Staff Concluding Statement of the 2024 Article IV Mission,” February 2025.
- World Bank, “Zambia Economic Update, April 2025,” accessed June 2025.
- Zambia Development Agency, “Annual FDI Report 2024,” March 2025.
- World Bank, “Poverty and Equity Brief – Zambia,” July 2025.
- Zambia Central Statistical Office, “Labour Force Survey 2024,” May 2025.
- Zambia Election Monitoring Centre, “Interim Report on Political Violence, Q1 2025,” April 2025.
- Media Institute of Southern Africa, “Analysis of Zambia’s Cybercrime Act 2025,” May 2025.
- Afrobarometer, “Round 9 Survey: Zambia,” June 2025.
