South Sudan Prepares for Historic Elections Amid Renewed Violence
After years of postponements, South Sudan is scheduled to hold nationwide elections in December 2024. The vote would be the first since the country gained independence from Sudan in 2011, yet the electoral process unfolds against a backdrop of rising insecurity, humanitarian distress, and deep‑seated governance challenges.
Background: The 2018 Peace Agreement
The Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R‑ARCSS), signed in September 2018, ended a brutal civil war that pitted forces loyal to President Salva Kiir against those allied with then‑Vice President Riek Machar. Key provisions of the deal included:
- A permanent cease‑fire and the establishment of a transitional government of national unity.
- The unification of rival armed forces into a single, professional national army.
- A roadmap calling for democratic elections to be held within 24 months of the formation of the transitional government.
According to the agreement, elections were originally slated for 2022. However, implementation stalled as critical benchmarks—particularly the unification of forces and the drafting of a permanent constitution—were not met.
Why the Vote Has Been Delayed
Several factors have contributed to the repeated postponements:
- Security impediments: Sporadic clashes between government troops and rebel factions have made voter registration and campaigning unsafe in many regions.
- Institutional weaknesses: The National Elections Commission lacks sufficient funding, technical capacity, and political independence to organise a credible poll.
- Political calculations: Both Kiir and Machar have expressed concerns that an premature election could weaken their respective power bases, leading to tactical delays.
The country’s information minister recently reiterated that holding the elections in December 2024 is “non‑negotiable,” arguing that a legitimate vote is essential to break the cycle of interim governance.
Current Security Situation
Despite the 2018 peace deal, violence has escalated in recent months. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN OCHA), over 210,000 people were newly displaced between January and September 2024 due to fighting in Upper Nile, Jonglei, and Western Equatoria states.
Armed groups loosely aligned with the vice president have clashed with government forces in several hotspots, prompting fears of a return to full‑scale war. The International Crisis Group warned in its July 2024 briefing that “the risk of large‑scale conflict resurgence is high if the electoral process proceeds without a credible security arrangement.”
Humanitarian Impact
The deteriorating security situation has hampered aid delivery:
- Humanitarian convoys have been attacked on average three times per week in the first half of 2024, according to the World Food Programme (WFP).
- Health facilities in conflict‑affected counties report stock‑outs of essential medicines in over 40 % of cases.
- Food insecurity remains acute, with the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) estimating that 6.3 million people—roughly half the population—will face crisis or worse levels of hunger by the end of 2024.
These conditions not only threaten civilian lives but also undermine the legitimacy of any electoral outcome, as large segments of the population may be unable to vote freely.
International Response and Recommendations
Regional bodies and foreign donors have urged caution:
- The African Union’s Peace and Security Council called for an “immediate cease‑fire and the resumption of the unified forces process” ahead of the polls.
- The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) has pledged additional funding for voter education, but only if security guarantees are strengthened.
- Transparency International’s 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index ranks South Sudan 179 out of 180, underscoring the need for robust anti‑corruption safeguards in campaign financing and election administration.
Experts suggest a phased approach: first, enforce a verifiable cease‑fire and complete the unification of forces; second, deploy an neutral international observer mission; and third, allow a limited window for voter registration and campaigning under monitored conditions.
Looking Ahead
South Sudan stands at a crossroads. A credible December election could cement the transition from war to peace and provide a mandate for much‑needed reforms. Conversely, proceeding without addressing the underlying security, institutional, and governance deficits risks plunging the nation back into large‑scale conflict, exacerbating suffering for millions of civilians.
Stakeholders—government leaders, opposition groups, civil society, and the international community—must prioritize the protection of civilians, the impartiality of electoral institutions, and the fulfillment of the peace agreement’s core commitments. Only then can the ballot box become a genuine instrument of lasting stability rather than a flashpoint for renewed violence.
